The future of Iraq?

by agryPerson Fri Jun 16, 2006 16:21

Your analysis seems to be based on a number of flimsy arguments and assumtions:

1. "their superior firepower is the only force which is keeping Iraq from completely fragmenting and descending into complete chaos"

Superior firepower or no, the simple fact is that is not enough US (or viable Iraqi) troop numbers needed to effectivly police Iraq or put down a guirilla movement. Needless to say, also, the reason a majority of insurgents are fighting is the presence of foriegn troops, sectarian Iraqi army, and a puppet government.

2. What if America decide that Iraq is another Vietnam and withdraw their forces in haste recreating in the Green Zone the same scenes on the rooftop of the US embassy in Hanoi in 1975?

Firstly, it is not possible at the moment for any Coalition civilians to leave the green zone or associated areas (even to the airport) without a military escort. As for leaving the green zone and military bases permanently, I believe most polls show Iraqis in favour of this.

3. What if America cuts funding for the Iraqi government, military and police?

The current govenment has to hold sessions in the heavilly fortified green zone. The police/military are heavilly integrated with both insurgents and sectarian militias (interior ministry?). Funding indeed would be better served in other areas, perhaps even a government/policing force freely elected after foriegn troops have left.

4. In the space of a few months the Iraqi government would be replaced by military junta fighting for power.

I dont think the term "military junta", quite applies, it is more used for expressing a military dictatorship. Iraq is full of militias, some rivalling, but also most take guidance from spiritual leaders. The main militias (badr brigas, Kurdish peshmerga) have showed themselves in the past to be quite open to discorse. They also have nothing to gain from warring for power, none is strong enough to effectivly topple the others (allthough the kurdish groups could vie for autonomy). Again, the militias are currently "fighting for power" in the puppet government, and most (if not all) show support for the speedy withdrawal of occupation troops.

5. At the moment infrastructure in Iraq is poor and law and order is arbitrary - these would be entirely nonexistent if full scale civil war broke out. Militia and insurgents have established and consolidated their power in the Kurdish, Sunni and Shia areas.

Full scale civil war? And what may I ask is happening at the moment? Also the reason militias and insurgents have established power in many areas is because they have far more puplic support than the current government and they can provide some semblence of law and order. As for infrastructure, was it not the americans who destroyed it in the first place? This is an area for compensation.

As I read the rest of your post I realise your... not all there... But anyway...

Iran has nothing to gain from american withdrawal, it allready has power (the whole sistani bloc), and therefore has the americans in a compromising position. As for Jihadi's etc, do you not think that the current situation benifits them more? The country is indeed screwed at the moment, but It is only our western superiority complex (or money in our pockets) that thinks that the Iraqis are not capable of oragnaising their own (free) system of government.