Post Lisbon Referendum – An analysis of the profile and reasons behind why people voted NO.

national | miscellaneous | opinion/analysis Friday July 11, 2008 17:01 by Libertarian

Introduction

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the recent opinion poll carried out by the European commission on the Lisbon treaty result, paying specific attention to NO voters. The focus will not only be on the profile of those who voted NO, but more importantly the reasons behind why they voted No.

An opinion poll carried out by the European commission on the 13th – 14th June was released during the week. The Eurobarometer randomly surveyed 2,000 people to understand 5 main issues:

1. To understand the reasons for non – participation in the referendum
2. To evaluate the respondents views about the campaign
3. To identify the main reasons for ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes.
4. To get an overall reaction to the result

The main overall findings make for interesting reading, but a lot of it is unsurprising for those who followed the pre and post analysis of the campaign. Whilst many felt there was a significant ‘class’ factor to the NO vote there was very little evidence to illustrate why and how the working and middle class voted.

The main findings are as follows:

1. Most people did not vote because they did not understand what the issues presented.
2. Most voters felt that campaigners used it as an opportunity to promote their own political agenda
3. There were multi dimensional reasons for why people voted NO (outlined below), but Yes voters were more one dimensional (focusing on the benefits Ireland gain from the EU)
4. Those who voted NO were predominantly young people, women, students, the unemployed and manual workers
5. Those who voted Yes were predominantly managers, professionals and retired people

Profile of No voters

The silent majority :
Before analysing why people voted No it is worth noting that 51% of workers (described as employees in the poll) did not vote in the referendum. That is, 6/10 manual workers did not vote. The poll does not clarify whether those surveyed were eligible to vote, i.e. migrant labourers etc. Only 39% of employers or self employed did not vote. Thus, the majority of working class people in Ireland did not vote in the Lisbon referendum and there is no information detailing how they may have voted.

The two main reasons for not voting by both working and professional class were a) lack of knowledge and b) referendum not important to them. 86% of those who did not vote stated that they still supported Ireland’s membership of the EU.

The voting minority:
It is clear that there was a pattern amongst those who voted NO to Lisbon.After analysing the socio demographic groups of who voted NO there is a clear pattern amongst 5 groups. There are listed below

1. 74% of manual workers
2. 72% of students (predominantly from professional backgrounds)
3. 65% of 18 – 24 year olds (Young people)
4. 58% of unemployed
5. 56% of women (mainly those working in the home)

The 5 main supporters of the YES vote where generally male and came from higher socio economic groups

1. 68% of the self employed
2. 66% of senior managers
3. 58% of professionals
4. 57% of those who had completed higher education
5. 51% of men

Reasons behind why they voted No.

However concentrating on the profile of those who voted will not provide us with any clear understanding as to why people voted NO. Common sense can often tell us what ‘social category’ voters fall into. This is not rocket science. It is far better to concentrate on the reasons people why people voted NO (and after analysing the profile we can ask why did the majority of the working class either disengage or vote NO in the referendum).

The two main reasons provided by NO voters are

a) A lack of information (22%)- Democracy
b) To protect Irish identity (12%) – Nationalism

Besides these two main rationales, NO voters (working class it would appear) listed the following in rank order

c) To safeguard Irish neutrality & defence matters (6%)
d) Lack of trust in politicians (6%)
e) Losing the right to an Irish commissioner (6%)
f) Protest against government policies (4%)
g) Protect influence of small states (3%)
h) To stop introduction of abortion (2%)
i) To avoid an influx of immigrants (1%)

An important figure is the 14% of people gave ‘other’ reasons. These are not detailed in the report. Also an important omission was not providing specific workers related issues on the list of options to people to choose from. There was also no mention of people voting NO against a particular type of Europe, i.e. a Neo Liberal Europe. However, it was mentioned that the 14% contained many different responses so it may be several clusters of smaller reasons with no clear observation such as workers rights.

Conclusions and interpretations

Was class a significant factor? Of course class was a significant factor. It is not rocket science to acknowledge different socio – cultural and socio- economic groups vote in particular patterns. However, what is more significant for those wanting to build upon the NO vote is to analyse the reasons why people voted no. Just because the working class voted NO it would be wrong to conclude that this was some a victory for the progressive left in Ireland.

What is positive is the glaringly obvious fact that most people voted NO because they had no part in creating the decision they were being asked to vote on. Thus, it is a victory for grassroots democracy. Also, the fact that the vast majority of people did not vote on the basis of lack of knowledge shows that people will not be herded in like cattle to vote on something they do not understand.

However, most NO voters also pledged support for one of the two main political parties in the country FG & FF. 49% of FG supporters voted No, 40% of FF supporters voted No, 55% of Labour voters voted No and almost 60% of the Greens voted No, 95% of Sinn Fein voters voted No. Hence it shows that not all those who support a political party will follow the ‘party line’. Arguably, this is a positive sign for progressive politics?

What is also obvious (and personally I find this negative) is the grip of ‘national identity’ upon the politics of the working class. If I was in Sinn Fein I would take a lot of positive from this poll. Nationalism was undoubtedly a massive factor for why people voted NO. So, it looks like the retention of a strong Irish identity amongst the working class is still a crucial political concern.